The North American big box industrial market gained meaningful momentum in the second half of 2025, according to the 2026 Big Box Outlook report released last week by Colliers.
The hope? That this signals a shift from the softness of the prior two years toward a more balanced environment.
Colliers’ Big Box report tracks modern North American warehouse and distribution facilities of 200,000 square feet or more with at least 28-foot clear heights.
According to the latest report, new leasing in this type of industrial space in North America rose to 145.6 million square feet in the second half of 2025. That’s the strongest leasing performance for a six-month period since 2022.
Colliers reported, too, that net absorption in the second half of 2025 in North America surged to 85.6 million square feet, nearly double the amount of big-box leasing activity in the first half of the year.
This rebound in demand, combined with a reduced construction pipeline, helped push the national vacancy rate down 108 basis points, to 10%. Colliers reported that the increase in occupancy rates in the big-box industrial market was driven by 3PLs, retailers, e-commerce and a growing wave of manufacturing and reshoring activity.
Colliers said that 113.1 million square feet of big-box industrial space was under construction in the North American markets that the company tracks as of the end of 2025. That is down 5.2 million square feet from the same time a year earlier.
Of course, not all markets performed equally well. Colliers reported that high-growth logistics markets such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Columbus and Indianapolis saw some of the strongest big-box performances in the second half of last year.
Core distribution hubs such as Chicago, Memphis and Houston also saw a boost in leasing activity last year, Colliers reported.
Consider Chicago’s performance. According to Colliers, new leases in Chicago’s big-box market increased 52% year-over-year to 23.4 million square feet in 2025. That marks the strongest annual total for this market since 2022’s 25.6 million square feet leased.
Occupiers signed 10 new big-box industrial leases in the Chicago market of 500,000 square feet or more last year. Five of theses were for more than 1 million square feet. RJW Logistics was responsible for 3.3 million square feet of new big-box leasing, adding two new facilities in Joliet and one in Plainfield, Illinois.
Vacancy in the Chicago big-box market dropped to 8.3% as of the end of 2025, 114 basis points below the 9.4% peak that this market recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
Colliers reported that Dallas-Fort Worth’s big-box vacancy rate decreased 190 basis points in 2025 to 12.4%. Fewer new deliveries and steady tenant demand among key logistics corridors fueled this market. Vacancy rates here were highest in buildings of 200,000 square feet to 499,999 square feet at 14.6% and lowest in big-box spaces of 750,000 square feet or more, coming in at 8.6%.
New big-box leasing totaled 18 million square feet in the second of the year in the Dallas-Fort Worth market, Colliers reported. That is the strongest this sector has performed here since the first half of 2024.
Colliers said that big-box leasing activity in the Dallas-Forth Worth market increased across all size ranges in the second half of 2025 when compared to the first six months of the year, rising 39% overall.
Houston’s big-box vacancy rate held at 13.6% at the end of 2025, unchanged from the middle of the year but up 122 basis points year over year. Vacancy rates here were highest in buildings of 750,000 square feet or more at 19.1% and lowest in buildings of 500,000 square feet to 749,999 square feet at 10.5%.
New big-box leases in the Houston market totaled 11.1 million square feet in the second half of 2025, the highest six-month total in three years and 62% higher on a year-over-year basis. Colliers said that 90% of this activity took place in buildings of under 750,000 square feet.
Indianapolis enjoyed a strong second half of 2025, according to Colliers’ research. This market recorded 10.7 million square feet of big-box net absorption during the last six months of last year. This is the highest six-month total since the second half of 2022. The activity was driven largely by occupancy gains in buildings of 500,000 square feet to 749,999 square feet.
This leasing activity pushed the Indianapolis big-box vacancy rate down 331 basis points to 12.1% between July and September, the lowest level since the end of 2022. Colliers pointed to three big user sales in the second half of the year: Walmart purchasing 1.2 million square feet in McCordsville, Amazon buying 1.1 million square feet in Greenfield and D&H Distributing Co. purchasing 602,421 square feet in Whiteland.
Cincinnati’s big-box market saw improvement in the second half of 2025, too. Since peaking at 12.3% in the first half of 2024, the Cincinnati market’s big-box vacancy rate declined 268 basis points to 9.6% as of the end of 2025.
