Retailers are already competing for holiday shoppers, rolling out October promotions to snag the dollars of consumers who want to get their gift buying done early. But while forecasts call for higher holiday sales this year, economic pressures could influence where consumers shop and how much they spend.
That combination of opportunity and uncertainty will shape the 2026 holiday shopping season, according to recent holiday retail research from Placer.ai. In its latest analysis of retail traffic trends, the location analytics firm examines how shopping patterns have changed in recent years and what those shifts could mean for retailers preparing for the busiest shopping period of the year.
One of the biggest opportunities? Getting shoppers through the doors earlier in the holiday shopping season, particularly those looking to make major purchases.
Big-ticket shopping starts earlier
October promotions from retailers such as Amazon, Target and Walmart are giving consumers an early opportunity to hunt for bargains. With five Saturdays on the October calendar this year, retailers had additional opportunities to attract shoppers before the traditional holiday rush.
Placer.ai’s research shows that early shopping has become increasingly important for big-ticket categories. Between 2019 and 2025, the share of October-through-December visits to electronics stores occurring before Thanksgiving week increased by 4 percentage points. For home furnishings chains, that share climbed by 3.4 percentage points.
Still, the traditional holiday shopping peaks remain important. Black Friday week continued to generate a particularly strong boost in visits to electronics stores in 2025, outperforming the week before Christmas. Home furnishings chains also experienced a substantial Black Friday lift, while hobby, gift and craft retailers benefited from shoppers purchasing decorations and supplies for seasonal projects.
For many retailers selling smaller-ticket merchandise, the biggest opportunity may come closer to Christmas. Shoppers often delay smaller, less-expensive purchases until the final days of the season, particularly when looking for deals on gifts that fit their budgets.
Affordable gifts could win shoppers
Economic pressures could make those lower-priced purchases especially important this year. With many lower- and middle-income households still feeling financially stretched, consumers may purchase smaller indulgences instead of splurging on expensive merchandise.
Recent shopping traffic already offers evidence of this shift. Between July and September, bookstores recorded the strongest year-over-year visit growth among the retail categories tracked by Placer.ai. Off-price apparel retailers ranked second, followed by hobby, gift and craft stores.
Other categories had a tougher time attracting shoppers. Visits to traditional apparel brands, department stores and home furnishings chains all fell below year-earlier levels. Electronics stores recorded only a modest 0.4% increase.
For retailers, those trends point to the importance of making affordable, giftable merchandise more visible during the holiday season. Displays featuring lower-priced books, apparel, accessories and seasonal items could appeal to consumers who still want to give meaningful gifts but have less room in their budgets for big-ticket purchases.
Malls offer more than shopping
Shopping centers also have an opportunity to benefit from changing consumer behavior. According to Placer.ai, indoor malls outpaced discretionary retail chains in visit growth during the summer, while mall visitors also spent more time at these properties. Dwell time at discretionary retail chains, by comparison, remained roughly flat.
That difference suggests that investments in dining, entertainment and special events might help malls establish themselves as destinations rather than simply collections of stores.
The strategy could pay dividends during the holidays, when consumers are looking for seasonal activities as well as gifts. Holiday markets, family entertainment, festive displays and special events can give shoppers additional reasons to visit malls while encouraging them to stay longer.
Retailers and property owners could benefit by coordinating promotions with those broader experiences, highlighting not only what consumers can buy but also what they can do during a visit.
An unpredictable season ahead
Economic uncertainty and the approaching midterm elections could complicate retailers’ holiday plans as consumers respond to changing headlines and reassess spending priorities.
But Placer.ai’s analysis suggests that several strategies could help retailers navigate the season: launch attractive promotions early, emphasize affordable gifts and create experiences that give consumers more reasons to visit shopping destinations.
The holiday shopping season may still deliver sales growth, but retailers could find that capturing those dollars requires a more targeted approach — one that recognizes both consumers’ desire to celebrate and their need to watch their budgets.
For commercial real estate owners, the message is similar. Properties that combine convenient shopping with dining, entertainment and seasonal activities may be better positioned to turn holiday traffic into longer visits and additional spending.
