Optimism among U.S. manufacturers? That’s in short supply today, according to the latest research from the National Association of Manufacturers.
According to the association’s Second Quarter 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, optimism among manufacturers across the country has dropped sharply. Only 55.4% of respondents in the second quarter survey reported a positive outlook for their companies. That’s a drop of nearly 15 percentage points from the first quarter. It’s also the lowest this figure has been since the second quarter of 2020, the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
What’s behind this drop in optimism? Not surprisingly, it comes down to trade uncertainty. This uncertainty remained the top business concern for survey respondents in the second consecutive quarter, cited by 77%. A total of 66.1% of survey respondents cited concerns over increased raw material costs while 60% pointed to rising health care/insurance costs.
The survey found, too, that 85.4% of manufacturers believe Congress should preserve pro-growth tax policies in response to trade uncertainty.
The National Association of Manufacturers conducted the second quarter survey May. 8 through May 27.
The survey also found that:
Of the manufacturers surveyed, 89% said that the cost of doing business has increased because of tariffs imposed this year. The average stated cost increase is 7.7%.
Of those companies for which tariffs are applicable, 61.8% of respondents said that their export opportunities have been impacted.
When asked what manufacturers expect to happen with raw material prices and other input costs, respondents said that they expect those costs to increase by 5.8% on average, the highest rate of increase since second quarter of 2022 when the inflation rate was between 8% and 9%.
