The North American big-box industrial market is showing renewed strength, with leasing activity climbing, vacancy rates falling and developers growing more confident about bringing new warehouse and distribution space to the market.
Those are the main takeaways in Colliers’ 2026 Big Box Outlook, a recently released report that looks at the performance of 20 major industrial markets across the United States and Canada. The report’s midyear findings suggest that the sector is moving toward a healthier balance after several years in which a surge of new construction left landlords competing for tenants.
New leasing reached 170.6 million square feet during the first half of 2026, a 17% increase from the second half of 2025 and the strongest six-month total since 2022, according to Colliers’ report. Net absorption climbed to 87.6 million square feet, more than double the level recorded a year earlier.
That demand helped the market work through the substantial supply delivered during the recent construction boom.
Net absorption nearly doubled the 44.6 million square feet of new industrial space completed during the first half of the year. As a result, big-box vacancy fell to 9.4%, down from its recent peak of 11.1% a year earlier.
The improvement is particularly significant for buildings measuring at least 750,000 square feet, where vacancy stood at just 7.1% across the markets tracked by Colliers. Larger facilities are becoming increasingly difficult to find in several major distribution hubs, intensifying competition for modern, well-located properties.
Construction returns, but selectively
Developers are responding to the stronger leasing environment, though new construction remains well below the heights reached during the previous building cycle.
Colliers reported that 142.6 million square feet of big-box industrial space was under construction in the middle of 2026, up from 113.1 million square feet at the end of last year. It was the second consecutive increase that Colliers charted in the construction pipeline.
Still, the North American industrial sector is not seeing a return to the broad-based building boom of recent years. Instead, projects are increasingly concentrated in markets and building sizes in which vacancy has tightened and tenant demand has strengthened.
The largest facilities account for a substantial share of the pipeline. Of the 142.6 million square feet under construction, 61.3 million square feet consisted of buildings measuring at least 750,000 square feet.
Build-to-suit projects are also playing an important role in many markets, giving developers greater confidence that new facilities will have committed occupants rather than having to rely entirely on future leasing demand.
Rental rates are rising again, too. Average taking rents for big-box properties reached $8.87 per square foot on a triple-net basis, up 3.9% year over year. Performance varies by market, however, with some inland logistics hubs experiencing rent growth while certain coastal markets continue to work through elevated vacancy and rent corrections.
Chicago remains a major logistics player
Chicago continues to benefit from its extensive transportation infrastructure, including the nation’s largest U.S. rail network, significant intermodal freight activity and access to domestic and international supply chains through O’Hare International Airport.
Colliers reported that Chicago’s big-box vacancy rate stood at 8.7% at midyear 2026, slightly below its year-earlier level, although it increased 40 basis points from the end of 2025.
New leasing totaled 13.6 million square feet during the first half, the market’s strongest first-half performance since 2022. Logistics and supply-chain users were particularly active along the I-80/Joliet and I-55 corridors, with tenants including RJW Logistics, KeHE Distributors, Hyundai Translead and DSV contributing to demand.
Net absorption reached 4.2 million square feet, up from 3 million square feet during the first half of 2025. But new deliveries totaled 5.1 million square feet, outpacing occupancy gains.
Chicago also saw its construction pipeline increase to 11.1 million square feet from 9.5 million square feet at year-end. About 71% of that space was concentrated in buildings measuring at least 750,000 square feet, while build-to-suit projects accounted for 74% of active construction.
The figures point to continued interest from large occupiers even as the market absorbs recently completed space.
Regional markets show varied results
Across North America, the recovery is unfolding at different speeds.
Dallas-Fort Worth led all markets in new leasing during the first half, with 26 million square feet, followed by Eastern Pennsylvania’s Tri-State market at 23.9 million square feet. Atlanta, Chicago and Northern-Central New Jersey each recorded more than 13 million square feet of leasing.
Meanwhile, Phoenix, Greenville-Spartanburg, Indianapolis and Columbus posted some of the sharpest year-over-year vacancy declines, according to Colliers.
