Tariffs, trade policy, and geopolitical negotiations remain top of mind for investors as we approach the midpoint of the year. Given that negotiations are rapidly evolving and ongoing, predicting the potential impact on the macroeconomy and individual sectors, such as industrial real estate, with complete certainty is challenging at this time.
With that said, looking at previous periods of trade disruption can serve as a helpful guide. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial real estate initially faced headwinds as tenants and investors worked through the dynamic changes to the economy and the supply chain environment. However, over time, the trade disruptions in that period proved to be a tailwind for the sector as companies invested in their domestic supply chains to prevent similar supply chain shocks moving forward.
Today, even as tariffs are creating uncertainty, the industrial sector is undergoing a structural transformation driven by secular growth trends including growing e-commerce sales, the adoption of automation and robotics, and the onshoring of supply chains to the U.S. These trends have remained steadfast amidst the uncertainty in the market, particularly onshoring with many companies continuing to announce U.S. supply chain investments after the tariffs were put in place.
MaCauley Studdard, managing director at St. Louis-based ElmTree Funds. (Photo courtesy of ElmTree Funds.)
For institutional investors, we believe there are opportunities to capitalize on these long-term growth trends while investing in durable, defensive assets that can withstand the short-term volatility. Further, rather than seeing tariffs solely as a risk, investors should also consider the potential catalysts, such as driving new demand for domestic infrastructure and modern industrial facilities.
Tariffs Are Accelerating a Shift That Already Existed
While it might not have been as evident as in recent months, the new round of tariff policies being introduced or proposed in 2025 are reinforcing some of the trends that were already underway. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, as well as a growing push for domestic manufacturing have changed how companies are thinking about their manufacturing and distribution strategies.
As corporations have looked to minimize risk and improve their operational stability, the demand for domestic industrial space has increased, particularly for newly constructed facilities that provide long-term efficiencies and allow for the use of automation and robotics. Tariffs have only reinforced this supply chain strategy serving as a further catalyst for investments in physical infrastructure, supply chain autonomy, and long-term operational resiliency.
Additionally, certain industries with underlying growth drivers serve as relevant examples for why demand for build-to-suit development has remained in place. Industries including pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and digital infrastructure suppliers are continuing to expand their logistics networks despite these global pressures. Tenants in these industries have a need for new facilities to capitalize on changes occurring in their respective sectors.
In particular, demand for build-to-suit cold storage and data center facilities remains high. For cold storage, the demand is being driven by growth in the pharmaceutical industry along with food and beverage companies looking to capitalize on a consumer push towards fresh food and the increased adoption of food delivery. For data centers, the growth is being driven by hyperscale tenants’ need for new facilities to capitalize on the growth in AI and cloud computing.
These trends show that build-to-suit demand growth is often structural rather than cyclical. As a result, tariffs should indicate to institutional investors that, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, demand for high-quality, future-proof industrial assets remains structurally sound.
The Acceleration of Build-to-Suit
Despite tariffs, build-to-suit development has remained robust while speculative industrial developments have continued to decline. Corporate decision making has slowed a bit following the recent tariff announcements, but given build-to-suit industrial facilities are driven by specific tenant needs and are customized for long-term functionality, many build-to-suit projects have continued to move forward.
In terms of investment characteristics, build-to-suit facilities are typically leased for terms of 10 to 20 years or more, which mitigates against the re-leasing risk typically associated with real estate investments. Additionally, due to the customized nature of construction, build-to-suits tend to be strategically important to tenants’ overall operations, which increases the probability of renewal at lease expiration.
The newly constructed nature of build-to-suit assets also leads to owning assets that can maintain value over time due to their modern designs, Class A specifications and strategic locations. Infrastructure considerations, such as proximity to highways, airports, ports, and access to energy, as well as labor availability, have become critical underwriting components for many institutional investors. These factors not only determine the strategic value of a property to a tenant but also support the long-term viability and re-lease potential of the property. Site selection for a build-to-suit property is often the result of several years of planning by the corporation, which typically results in choosing optimal locations relative to infrastructure access and labor availability.
This combination of long-term leases, high renewal probabilities, and strategically located, Class A real estate offers a highly predictable income stream over a long-term investment horizon. During periods of elevated uncertainty and volatility, these defensive attributes often make build-to-suit assets highly sought after.
Institutional capital is gravitating toward this end of the industrial market, recognizing that build-to-suits assets offer a unique mix of security and scalability. The tenants occupying these properties, often Fortune 50, investment-grade-rated companies, are less likely to be deterred by short-term trade disruptions given their strategic planning and growth orientation is long-term in nature. They are also well capitalized companies with a proven track record of operating throughout various economic cycles, which minimizes tenant default risk in a potentially softening economic environment.
Domestic Demand Drivers
Outside of tariff dynamics, domestic fundamentals driving industrial real estate are strong. E-commerce growth continues to strengthen demand for logistics and last-mile facilities. According to the most recent U.S. Census report, online sales continue to gain market share, contributing 16.4% of total quarterly retail sales at the end of 2024 versus 14.9% at the beginning of 2023.
Another fundamental that is driving local growth is onshoring and reshoring efforts, which are prompting major investments in U.S. manufacturing and distribution hubs. The strength of the this trend has been highlighted by various companies announcing large-scale supply chain expansion plans after the onset of tariffs including Roche’s plan to invest $50 billion in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, Amazon’s $15 billion warehouse expansion plan, Nvidia’s plan to invest $500 billion in U.S. AI infrastructure, Abbott Laboratories plan to invest $500 million in manufacturing and R&D in the U.S., Novartis’ plan to invest $23 billion in U.S. manufacturing and R&D facilities, and Kimberly-Clark’s plan to invest $2 billion in U.S. manufacturing sites.
These large-scale manufacturing announcements will create significant follow-on demand within the build-to-suit sector. Suppliers will need to build new distribution, production and assembly facilities located near the manufacturing sites. Third-party logistics companies will need to expand their distribution footprints, which along with the manufacturing companies building out their own distribution capabilities, will drive significant demand for modern distribution facilities.
This reconfiguration of supply chains is also creating a sustained demand for industrial facilities that can support automation, robotics, and high-throughput operations. Many of the older industrial facilities across the U.S. lack the specifications needed to accommodate these capabilities so there is an ongoing flight to quality among tenants looking to future-proof their operations.
The shift in user demand is also being mirrored by investor behavior. Capital is continuing to flow toward new, Class A industrial assets that meet modern functionality requirements and are aligned with long-term trends in automation and domestic logistics. Tariffs, in this context, act less as a constraint and more as a confirmation that the demand for modern, domestic infrastructure is likely to persist.
Flight to Quality in Full Effect
In times of capital market dislocation, institutional investors tend to seek predictability over speculation. As a result, investors are spending more time analyzing market dynamics and tenant resilience, which leads to increased selectivity and a heightened focus on defensive strategies. Many investors are also prioritizing durable, income-generating assets that offer downside protection.
This flight to quality is particularly noticeable in the industrial sector today. Assets that have high quality tenants, long lease durations, and Class A specifications are commanding a significant premium over higher risk properties with a more speculative investment thesis. This bifurcation within the industrial sector is expected to persist over the foreseeable future as the uncertainty in the wider economy will continue to push investors towards defensive investments.
Flexibility Through Relationships and Structuring
While the flight to quality favors certain types of industrial assets, it also rewards investment managers with deep relationships and a proven track record, which can be a major advantage during a time of uncertainty. From the tenant perspective, build-to-suit developments are critical pieces of their growth strategies, and they place a high level of scrutiny on the capital and development partners involved in the process to ensure the projects are completed in a timely and efficient manner.
In rapidly evolving environments like the one today, tenants have an even stronger preference to work with counterparts that have experience in the build-to-suit sector. This experience provides tenants with confidence that their partners in the transaction can manage through the volatility in the market and ensure the property is completely on time and on budget.
Industrial’s New Age of Opportunity
Looking forward, investors should continue to monitor the tariff policy in the U.S. and its potential ramifications on the macroeconomy and capital markets. However, amidst the macro uncertainty, there are investment opportunities that have defensive characteristics that can protect against short-term volatility while still offering access to long-term growth trends.
Given it is difficult to predict whether current protectionist trade measures are temporary or long-term, we believe the best-positioned investment strategies are those that can perform well under either condition, which favors properties with long-term leases to investment-grade tenants that can offer predictable income streams over various economic and real estate cycles.
Industrial asset investment is no longer about targeting short-term growth potential, but rather it’s centralized around strategy, adaptability, and alignment with future economic priorities. For institutional investors, this means embracing a nuanced view of the sector and seeking opportunities to build critical domestic infrastructure, deploy capital into defensive investments, and partner with high quality tenants looking to continue to grow and build competitive advantages during a period of uncertainty.
MaCauley Studdard is managing director at St. Louis-based ElmTree Funds.
