The Cincinnati retail market should prepare for a busier year when it comes to investment sales activity, according to the latest forecast from Marcus & Millichap.
According to Marcus & Millichap’s 2026 retail Investment Forecast, the strength of downtown Cincinnati and a limited supply of new retail space should boost the performance of the area’s retail sector this year, making it a more attractive market for investors. The lower sales prices and higher cap rates here don’t hurt, either.
In its report, Marcus & Millichap said that after a year of negative net absorption and dips in average asking rent in 2025, the Cincinnati retail market is poised to post a moderate recovery in 2026.
A particular bright spot? Downtown Cincinnati. Marcus & Millichap said that downtown’s multi-tenant segment still stands as one of the metropolitan area’s lowest-vacancy and highest-rent areas. The downtown area’s limited construction pipeline — which accounts for less than 1% of new retail supply in the region — could lead to more activity in the submarket this year.
Marcus & Millichap is predicting, too, that the renovation of the Duke Energy Convention Center should boost visitor traffic to Cincinnati’s downtown, which should provide be a positive for retailers in the heart of the city. A major mixed-use development near TQL Stadium, which is now under final zoning approval, could also boost the long-term prospects of downtown-area retailers.
It’s not just the downtown retail sector that appears poised for a strong year, either. Marcus & Millichap pointed to the Butler County submarket as boasting a strong retail sector, too, with one of the lowest single-tenant vacancy rates in the region. The retail sector in the Northern Kentucky submarket is solid, too, with a year-over-year drop in vacancy of nearly 120 basis points.
Marcus & Millichap predicts that the metro area’s asking rent growth will increase modestly in 2026, reaching $14.50 a square foot. Even with that boost, retail asking rents in the Cincinnati area will continue to rank among the lowest markets nationally.
Also in its forecast, Marcus & Millichap predicts that improving demand will not outpace new supply, pushing the metro area’s vacancy rate to 6.5% by the end of 2026. This would be its highest level since 2020.
Retail deliveries should remain above the five-year average, according to Marcus & Millichap. The company predicts that the Cincinnati region will see 450,000 square feet of new retail space in 2026.
Marcus & Millichap does predict an increase in retail investment sales in the Cincinnati area this year. Cincinnati continues to rank among the lowest‑priced major metros, with high cap rates, particularly given its comparatively low asking rents. This was attractive to investors last year, and helped increase trading activity by 33% last year, Marcus & Millichap said.
This increase was largely driven by a higher number of investment sales in the Butler County and Northern Kentucky submarkets. Marcus & Millichap said that signs point to additional capital being raised for single-tenant acquisitions this year.
