A trip to the grocery store used to be routine. Today, it’s a choice, and that choice is reshaping retail real estate across the country.
That’s the takeaway from JLL’s 2026 Grocery Tracker report, which paints a picture of a grocery sector splitting into two powerful camps: value-focused chains on one side and premium, fresh-format grocers on the other. Caught in the middle? Traditional supermarkets that are finding it harder to hold market share and prop up the shopping centers they anchor.
For landlords and investors, this isn’t just a retail story. It’s a real estate one.
On the value end, inflation-weary shoppers are hunting for bargains. That’s fueled the rapid expansion of discount operators such as Aldi, which added 180 new U.S. stores in 2025 and expects to open 800 more by 2028. Grocery Outlet is also in growth mode, opening 37 new locations.
At the same time, a different shopper is filling carts at fresh-format and specialty stores. Chains like Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods Market reported same-store visit increases of 10.4% and 9.8%, respectively. Sprouts Farmers Market expanded with 39 new stores, capitalizing on demand for fresh, natural and specialty products.
“The data confirms a two-track market where traditional supermarkets are being squeezed,” said James Cook, Americas director of research, retail at JLL, in a statement. “We’re seeing a pronounced flight to value, with our research showing shoppers making more frequent, shorter trips to manage budgets and private label sales surging 30% since 2021 to over $282 billion. This is happening while fresh-format players are successfully capturing a dedicated consumer base. This split is the single most important trend for landlords, as a retail center’s performance is now more dependent on the strength and format of its grocery anchor than ever before.”
The impact on retail fundamentals is clear.
Grocery-anchored shopping centers today boast a vacancy rate of just 4%, far below the 6.3% rate posted by centers without a grocery anchor. They also command a 4.4% rent premium. In an era when many property owners are still recalibrating after pandemic-era disruption, that’s a significant spread.
The reason is simple: traffic.
A strong grocery anchor generates consistent, needs-based visits. Shoppers might pop in several times a week, creating steady foot traffic that benefits neighboring tenants. That translates into stronger leasing velocity and better retention, with less turnover among smaller-shop tenants.
“For landlords, this trend sharpens the focus on how well their grocery anchor meets a specific consumer demand,” said Naveen Jaggi, president of retail advisory services at JLL, in a statement. “A successful anchor from one of these growing segments acts as a powerful draw because shoppers are making intentional choices. This strong consumer alignment enhances leasing prospects for adjacent space, as complementary retailers seek to position themselves where their target customers are already shopping. It creates a thriving retail ecosystem that benefits the entire retail center.”
Investors are responding. Transaction volume for grocery-anchored centers jumped 42% in the past year to nearly $11 billion, according to JLL. Institutional buyers accounted for 27% of acquisitions in 2025, a sign that larger pools of capital view these assets as durable, defensive plays.
“Investors are taking notice,” said Chris Angelone, senior managing director of retail capital markets at JLL, in a statement. “They are no longer underwriting a generic asset class but are now laser-focused on the strength and format of the grocer itself. This explains the flight to quality and the surge in transaction volume, as capital seeks out the stability and durable cash flow that centers with these winning anchors provide.”
