The number of new apartment units coming online in the United States is expected to decrease through 2027, according to the latest forecast from Yardi Matrix.
This isn’t surprising: The new-construction pipeline slowed dramatically this year and last, resulting in far fewer new apartment projects scheduled to open in the coming years.
According to the Yardi Matrix fourth quarter multifamily supply forecast, the United States is expected to see 508,089 new apartment units in 2025. That is down from the predicted 554,288 units expected to deliver throughout 2024.
And the number of new units is expected to only decline further, with Yardi Matrix predicting just 371,509 new apartment units delivered in 2026 and 326,911 in 2027.
This trend is only expected to begin reversing in 2028, when Yardi Matrix estimates that the United States will see 404,559 new multifamily units. And in 2029, Yardi Matrix predicts that 426,485 new apartment units will deliver throughout the country.
Among multifamily markets tracked by Yardi Matrix on or before January of 2020, the under-construction pipeline dipped 3.8% quarter-over-quarter to 1.16 million units. From September 2023 to June 2024, the under-construction pipeline was at or above 1.2 million units.
A total of 56,997 apartment units in the under-construction pipeline are in lease-up, according to Yardi Matrix. Lease-up units declined 9.7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis but increased 5.5% year-over-year.
Markets that are seeing a decrease in under-construction units include the North Dallas market, where 13,793 apartment units were under construction as of October of 2024 compared to 17,917 in the same month a year earlier, and the suburban Dallas market, where 8,962 units were under construction as of the October of this year compared to 12,288 in October of 2023.
In the Houston West submarket, 10,774 multifamily units were under construction in October compared to 14,741 in October of 2023. In Austin, 22,909 apartment units were under construction in October of this year, a big dip from the 40,895 in the same month a year earlier.
And in San Antonio, 6,109 units were under construction this October while 10,949 were under construction a year earlier.
Nashville is seeing a significant dip in new apartment construction, too. Yardi Matrix reported that 11,043 new units were under construction as of October of 2024, a drop of 29.7% from the 15,705 under construction during October of 2023.
