A turbulent market. That’s how CommercialCafe describes the U.S. industrial sector in its February 2026 national industrial report.
It’s a fitting phrase. After several years of breakneck growth, record construction and frenzied leasing, the nation’s warehouse and logistics market is now navigating a period defined less by expansion and more by uncertainty.
And there’s plenty of that to go around.
Trade policy remains a moving target. The threat, and partial retreat, of tariffs has sent mixed signals to port operators, developers and logistics users alike. Shipping volumes declined as 2025 progressed, reflecting caution among importers wary of rapidly shifting rules.
One flashpoint: proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese-made port cranes. Though postponed late last year, the idea alone was enough to rattle port authorities. Roughly four out of five U.S. port cranes are manufactured in China, and the largest models can take two years to deliver. The possibility of prices doubling overnight has already slowed upgrade plans at several ports.
Complicating matters further is the evolving situation at the Panama Canal, the critical artery through which about 40% of U.S. imports pass. A recent ruling by Panama’s Supreme Court invalidated a long-held port concession controlled by a Hong Kong conglomerate. The Panamanian government seized two terminals, and Danish shipping giant Maersk stepped in to oversee operations until a new agreement is finalized. Day-to-day operations haven’t changed, but the geopolitical ripple effects could be significant over time.
Back home, the U.S. Supreme Court added another twist by striking down much of the administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff strategy, ruling that the president lacks authority to impose unilateral tariffs. In response, the administration announced a 10% global tariff, later raising it to 15%.
“As the Supreme Court ruling sets the stage for continued uncertainty and extended litigation, we’re watching import levels closely, with the door potentially open for a wave of stockpiling similar to the beginning of 2025,” said Peter Kolaczynski, director of Yardi Research, in a written statement.
For West Coast ports in particular, the ruling may provide short-term relief. But for an industrial real estate sector that thrives on predictability, the back-and-forth has made underwriting and expansion decisions more complex.
Even so, fundamentals are stabilizing.
National in-place industrial rents averaged $8.94 per square foot at the end of January, up 5.1% year-over-year. Atlanta led the country with 8% annual rent growth, followed by Miami and Tampa at 7.4% and Philadelphia at 6.8%.
Nationally, vacancy stood at 9.6% in January, up 160 basis points year-over-year. In many markets, that figure is approaching equilibrium as the industry “rests and digests” after the supply glut. About 355.7 million square feet remain under construction, representing a manageable 1.7% expansion of national inventory.
Data centers remain the outlier.
Fueled by generative AI investment from tech giants, 2025 saw more data center construction than the combined total from 2020 through 2022. Development is concentrated, though. Washington, D.C., anchored by the Northern Virginia corridor, led with 6.1 million square feet underway. Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, Atlanta and Columbus, Ohio, rounded out the top five. Together, those markets account for the lion’s share of new starts.
In the Midwest, vacancy remains comparatively tight. Kansas City and St. Louis both posted 5% vacancy at the end of January, among the lowest in the nation. Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Cincinnati also outperformed the national average. Chicago, however, continues to wrestle with one of the country’s higher vacancy rates.
Columbus stands out for another reason: growth. With 12.2 million square feet under construction, the market is poised for a 3.7% inventory expansion, one of the most aggressive pipelines in the country.
In the South, investment activity remains strong. Atlanta led the region in January with $169 million in industrial transactions, averaging $160 per square foot. Houston is notable as one of just four major markets where vacancy actually declined year-over-year, falling to 6.3%. Meanwhile, Dallas-Fort Worth continues to boast the nation’s largest construction pipeline, hovering near 30 million square feet.
