The North American big-box industrial market is entering a new era of balance, according to the latest research from Colliers.
In its third-quarter North American Big Box Industrial report, Colliers said that supply and demand for larger industrial space are now closely aligned while vacancy rates are approaching their cyclical peaks.
Colliers found that across North America’s 20 largest markets, the overall big-box vacancy rate rose 19 basis points to hit 11% during the first half of 2025.
In its report, Colliers defines big-box industrial spaces as modern warehouses and distribution facilities of 200,000 square feet or more with at least 28-foot clear heights. These spaces continue to play a key role in the logistics, warehousing and e-commerce economy, Colliers said.
Part of the reason for the new balance achieved in this sector? A relative lack of new supply.
Colliers reported that the new supply of big-box industrial space in North America totaled 48 million square feet in the first half of 2025. That is a big dip from the 330 million square feet completed at the height of the latest industrial cycle in 2023.
Also during the first half of 2025, the North American big-box industrial sector recorded 41 million square feet of net absorption. As Colliers says, the narrowing gap between new supply and demand marks a “clear inflection point.”
Colliers reported, too, that 112 million square feet of new big-box industrial space was under construction in the 20 largest markets in North America as of the end of the third quarter. Space under construction has fallen by 67% when compared to the end of 2022. Back then, 367 million square feet of new big-box space was under construction in North America’s 20 largest markets.
Colliers sums it up like this: The first half of 2025 highlights a big-box market transitioning from imbalance to steady and durable growth.
